Uncertainty

  • The state of being uncertain; doubt; hesitancy: “His uncertainty gave impetus to his inquiry.”
  • The state of being uncertain; doubt; hesitancy: “His uncertainty gave impetus to his inquiry.”
  • An instance of uncertainty, doubt, etc.
  • Unpredictability; indeterminacy; indefiniteness.
  • Hesitation, irresolution, indecision, ambivalence.
  • Something that is uncertain or that causes one to feel uncertain.

Synonyms:Doubt, qualm, misgiving, apprehension, quandary, dilemma, reservation, niggle, scruple, second thought, query, question, question mark, suspicion.

It is described as a situation involving imperfect and/or/unknown information.

It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable and/or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, indolence or both.

Although the terms are used in various ways among the general public, many specialists in decision theory, statistics and other quantitative fields have defined uncertainty, risk and their measurements as:

Uncertainty:

The lack of certainty. A state of having limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state, a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome.

Measurement of uncertainty:

A set of possible states or outcomes where probabilities are assigned to each possible state or outcome, – this also includes the application of a probability density function to cont vous variables.

Second order uncertainty:

In the literature on statistics and economics, second-order uncertainty is represented in terms of probabilities. Opinions in subjective logic carry this type of uncertainty.

Risk:

A state of uncertainty where some possible outcomes have an undesired effect or significant loss.

Measurement of risk:

A set of measured uncertainties where some possible outcomes are losses, and the magnitude of those losses  this also includes loss functions over continuous variables.

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(Shown in Notebook 1, page 46 – 48)